Greg Brown didn’t have a year in college that many people expected him to have. To me one of the biggest reasons for that was him being miscast in the Texas system. To me he seems like a 4 roll man/ stretch 4, or a small ball 5. At Texas he shared the floor with Kai Jones and Jericho Sims, and even had to play some 3nD wing. Texas only played his as a Roll Man in the PnR like 10 times, TEN TIMES! All season. That is one of the reasons why his BPM stats are quite uninspiring. He posted a -0.2 OBPM and a 2.7 DBPM. Here are some similar freshmen seasons by players who ended up being drafted:
- Cam Reddish, former 10th pick
- Jaylen Brown, former 3rd pick
- Jaden McDaniels, former 28th pick
- Caleb Swanigan, former 28th pick
- Larry Nance Jr, former 27th pick
- Dwight Powell, former 45th pick
Interesting list of players. Brown is a two way force in the league. Reddish and McDaniels are still finding their place in the league, but both look like players who will outperform their draft slot. Swanigan was a talented player, but had issues. Nance Jr and Dwight Powell are both very good role players in the NBA. Powell strikes me as a very similar player to what Greg Brown could be his first few years in the league. If his shot develops, unlike Powell’s, Brown could be a player that earns close to 9 figures for his career. Powell so far in his made 60 million.
If we look at their Advanced Stats side by side, you can tell that in most parts Greg Brown is not that far behind most of those prospects. Apart from his Assist%, which is abysmally low. They all have similar PER, TS% EFG%. Greg has the second highest 3PTR behind Reddish and the second best rebounder after Swanigan. He is also slightly better at blocking than McDaniels. His TO% is high but not that much higher than most of guys, while having the second highest usage out of this group.
Their per 100 stats tell a similar story. But one thing that really sprung out to me is how close Jaylen Brown and Jaden McDaniels were to Greg Brown in terms of Fouls and TOs per 100. That is one of the biggest knocks on Greg, but as we see, there are examples there that in terms of both fouling and turning the ball over, he could be fine on the next level.
He posted a DBPM of 2.7, defensive rebound rate of 26., close to center territory, steal rate of 1.7, block rate of 5, a good mark for a 4 at the next level. Freshmen who posted similar numbers:
- Precious Achiuwa, former 20th pick
- Miles Bridges, former 12th pick
- Brandon Clarke, former 21st pick
- Pascal Siakam, former 27th pick
All these guys are valuable NBA players and all were taken in the first round. And they also show where Greg’s upside lays. He could be a rim running small ball 5, like Achiuwa or Clarke, or a dynamic lob threat/stretch 4 like Miles Bridges. Here are their advance stats side by side
Their DBPM aren’t all that dissimilar, Greg is the best defensive rebounder of the group , and it terms of steals and blocks there isn’t much separation there, apart from Achiuwa’s 6.4. But Greg played next to Kai Jones and Jericho Sims. If was used as 60% a 4 and 40% a five, with a different roster construction, his numbers would probably be higher. Might creep into the 30% Def Reb and 7% or 8% block rate. Btw, De’Andre Ayton is having a great playoffs. Oddly enough, being a lot taller than Greg, his defensive numbers weren’t that dissimilar. Ayton posted a Def Reb% of 28, Block% of 6.1 and Steal% of 1.
Will the he be able to space the Floor?
He posted a FT% of 71, a free throw rate of 37, His three point percentage of 33, taking around 9 per 100, and usage was a very healthy 26%. Players who posted similar numbers as freshmen, are similar in stature and were drafted are:
- Gordon Hayward, former 9th pick, career 37% from 3
- Ignas Brazdeikis, former 47th pick, finished this season with 39% from 3
- Khris Middleton, former 39th pick, career 39.5% from 3
- Kelly Oubre, former 15th pick, career 32.6% from 3
- Kevin Knox, former 9th pick, career 34% from 3, with 39% last season
Group that brings optimism, while some of their numbers aren’t great, there is still enough precedent to think that Greg Brown could be a plus shooter on the next level, especially if he is used as a pick and pop threat ,or spot up guy. Here are their stats side by side
Greg shot the biggest amount of 3s out of this group by far and he had the highest usage. And still he had similar percentages as a freshman Middleton and Oubre. He is the worst free throw shooter of the bunch but, only players with a higher FTR are Hayward and Oubre, both with a much better handle than Brown at his age. Brown will shot at the next level, but I would bet more on the 34-37 range than that of 38-40.
Creation for Others
He had a very bad 0.2 assist to turnover ratio. His usage was 26% and assist% very bad 4.8
- Nassir Little, former 25th pick, averaged over 1 assist per 36 in his 2 seasons in the league so far
- Derrick Williams former 2nd pick, never averaged more than 1 assist per game
- Marquese Chriss former 8th pick, peak at 3 assists per 36 with GSW
- Myles Turner, former 11th pick, around 1 assist per game in his career
Doesn’t really make one optimistic, apart from Chriss, who really boosted as a passer in Golden State, the rest of them, are an assist per game max. Here are their stats side by side.
Clearly, Greg is the worst passing prospect of the bunch. There is a small chance that he improves tho, as Chriss did, maybe if he gets in a system that is great at developing the cerebral parts of a player’s game, like GSW of SAS. But it is indeed very unlikely that you will see Greg Brown become a good passer or decision maker, which means his offensive role should be very limited at the next level.
Greg Brown will not be a star in the NBA, he might not even be a starter on most teams, but there is a lot of potential there, potential that could see him become a multi-dimensional role player in the NBA. On the defensive side of the ball, he could guard most wings, but excel as a 4, who rebounds the ball at an elite rate, and helps protect them rim from the weakside. He could also, after he reaches his physical peak, be a very good small ball 5 on the defensive end, his size, length, frame and athleticism, as well as his defensive stats back that up.
Offensively he has two paths to success. Either a rim running small ball 5/dunker or a stretch 4. If he clicks on both those paths he is set to make probably close to 9 figures in his career. But if the shot doesn’t fall he could still give you 20-25 minutes as a aggressive rim attacker, transition and lob threat, just like Dwight Powell on the Mavericks. I, for one, wouldn’t be all that surprise if we see him thriving in the certain playoff series a few years down the line. Most mocks have him in the second round, some even after the 45th pick. I think his multi-layered outcomes are a good gamble from the 25th pick onwards.