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NBA

Deuce McBride Should Go in the Lottery

Is he Jrue Holiday 2.0?

Miles McBride has a OBPM of 6 and a DBPM of 3. Among Sophomores and Freshmen guards, drafted in the first round of the NBA draft, here are some with similar output:

  1. Sophomore Trey Burke, Back up scoring PG with a few good moments in the league,former 9th pick
  2. Sophomore Tyrese Haliburton, up and coming combo guard with upside, former 12th pick
  3. Freshman Lonzo Ball, former 2nd pick in the draft, good two way guard.

Short and interesting list to choose from, but it gives optimism about him being a guy who  should be taken high in the draft.

Defensive Metrics

Next I looked at some of his defensive metrics. McBride had a DBPM of 3, DR rate of 9, steal rate of 3 and Block rate of 1 this year and 1.7 for his career. Decided to pick the former. So here are drafted guards with DBPM 3+, DR rate of 9+ STL rate of 3+, BLK rate of 1+:

  1. Sophomore Kris Dunn – 5th pick
  2. Sophomore Michael Carter Williams- 11th pick
  3. Sophomore Tyrese Haliburton – 12th pick
  4. Marcus Smart both as a freshman and Sophomore – 6th Pick
  5. Sophomore Nickeil Alexander Walker – 17th pick
  6. Sophmore Donovan Mitchell – 13th pick

Really a rag tag team. NAW and Haliburton are still works in progress. But apart from MCW, the rest of them have gone on to become plus defenders in the NBA, with Marcus Smart and Kris Dunn being well above average NBA guard defenders. I’m optimistic about McBride reaching Dunn or even Smart level of defensive impact. He is built like a NFL player, and he is very long with a 6-9 wingspan. McBride is on most mock drafts a fringe first rounder, but proven NBA players with similar output at the same age were taken in the lottery, some even top 10!

Will the he be able to space the Floor?

Now, let’s see some players who have shot similar to Deuce McBride in college. McBride posted a FT% of 81, a free throw rate of 33, three point percentage of 41 and usage of around 23. I looked at similar players and found:

  1. Sophomore Landry Shamet career 39.7% from 3 former 26th pick
  2. Freshman Shai Gilgeous-Alexander career 36% from 3, and still developing, former 11th pick
  3. Sophomore Nik Stauskas career 35% from 3, former 8th pick
  4. Sophomore Grayson Allen career 38.1% from 3, former 21st pick
  5. Sophomore Immanuel Quickley shot 39% from 3 his rookie year, former 25th pick
  6. Freshman CJ McCollum career 40% from 3, on high volume, former 10th pick

This indicated that Deuce should be slightly worse spreading the floor than he was in college. Non the less he should be a above average to  very good floor spacer on the next level. The only reason for concern is the number of his attempts. While most of these guys, SGA being the exception, shoot 9, 10 ore more threes per 100 possessions, Deuce managed only around 6 attempts per 100 possessions form beyond the arc. And again, the every single one of the players who posted similar numbers were taken in the first round, half of them in the lottery!

Creation for Others

McBride has one of the best ass/To ratios in this draft, with 2.67, his usage was an ok 23%, and his assist% was a very impressive 28.5. Similar players drafted in the first round:

  1. Freshman Lonzo Ball, gets between 5-6 assists per game
  2. Sophomore Landry Shamet, between 2 and 3 assists per 36 in the NBA
  3. Sophomore Payton Prichard 3 assists, per 36 his rookie year
  4. Sophomore Tyrese Haliburton, averaged 5 assists his rookie year
  5. Sophomore Jerian Grant, peaked at 5 assists per game
  6. Sophomore Shane Larkin around 4 astPG peak, 7 per 36
  7. Sophomore Malachi Flynn, 3 per game his rookie year, 5 when per 36

McBride might not be an elite creator on the second level, but there are good odds that he could be a starting PG level creator on a good team. It would be ideal to pair him with another initiatior, due to his defensive upside, strength and length you could easily slide him next to another pure, small PG, like a Trae Young.  But in McBride himself is a player who could get you 5 or 6 assists every night if you ask him to be your lead creator.

Scoring Volume

While he is a good 3pt shooter and can hit a few off the dribble, he is primarly a 2pts+FTs scorer, with close to 70% of his PPG coming from that fusion. This year he posted a FT rate of 33, FT% of 81%, 8 2pt field goal attempts and a 2pt field goal percentage of 44%. Freshman/Sophomore guards with similar output:

  1. Sophomore Jerian Grant, former 19th pick, peaked at 8 PPG /13 per 36
  2. Sophomore Wade Baldwin III,  former 17th pick, peaked 5 PPG
  3. Sophomore Tyus Jones former 24th pick, peaked at 7 PPG/ 14 per 36
  4. Freshman Tyrese Maxey former,  21st pick, average 8 PPG his rookie year /18 per 6
  5. Immanuel Quickley as both a sophomore and freshman, former 25th pick, averaged 11.5 PPG his rookie year /21 per 36
  6. Sophomore CJ McCollum, former 10th pick, peaked at 23 points per game

Really hard to tell if Deuce will be a player who could get you 20 on most nights. But unlike the few guys who failed, he has already a reliable 3 point shot. If he decreases the amount of 2s, adds a floater, and shoots more 3s, which we previously shown should translate to the NBA, he could be a player who is more likely to give you 15 than 20.

Summary

When one puts it all together, Miles “Deuce” McBride should be a lottery pick. I was high on him previously, having him 20th on my board, but now it’s time to move him even higher up. It’s really unbelievable that he should go 25 or 30 picks after Davion Mitchell. Deuce should be an amazing guard defender, who could bother smaller wings due to his length and strength. He can play on and off the ball.

If you draft him, odds are you are getting a player who could be above average as a floor spacer and creator, excel as a defender and at least become an average bucket getter at the guard spot. How is that not worthy of a top 14 pick?

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