There are a lot of ways people scout for NBA talent. I’m no expert, the furthest thing from it actually. But I love the NBA and I love examining future talent and what they could bring to the league. While a lot of people try to scout based on video analysis, watching games, etc. I don’t really have the time for that, so I tried to experiment with my own approach based on stats.
I looked at a few traditional, advanced, and shooting stats and tried to figure out how could a certain NBA prospect could be. The first prospect I examined was Anthony Edwards, who leads this, judging by what the “experts” are saying will be quite the underwhelming draft.
When I look at his advanced stats and compared it to every other freshman guard a lot of interesting names popped up( In total there were 57 freshmen with advanced stats similar to Edwards’ freshman season. 40 of them have been drafted). Here are the most interesting ones:
Next, I looked at traditional stats, such as points, assists, and rebounds per game. And there are only three freshmen who had similar averages. Those three are:
And finally, I looked at his field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage. While there were a lot of freshmen who shoot the ball as poorly as Edwards did in his freshman year, there have only been two who have been drafted and who had NBA careers. Those two are:
So if we were to predict the future based on the past there are a couple of scenarios that could befall the career of young Anthony Edwards:
- Gary Harris who can’t shoot and gets lost on defense.
- A shorter Josh Jackson.
- More athletic and powerful D’Angelo Russell, but with the shooting touch and selection of Marcus Smart.
- A better, stronger, faster more athletic Michael Redd , but with a 4-6% worse three point percentage.
Heaven Or Hell
In this segment I try to predict what his peak might look like if his potential is fulfilled (his best season of his career) or what his last season as a bust might look like.
Heaven – Edwards averages 26 Points, 8 Rebounds, 5.5 Assists, 2.5 Steals, 1 Block
Hell – Edwards averages 9 Points, 5 Rebounds 2.2 Assists, 0.8 Steals and 0.3 blocks.